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Coastal communities worldwide depend on marine ecosystems for food security and livelihoods, while facing accelerating pressures from climate change and human exploitation. The Working Group Ecosystems and Resource Sustainability, led by Dr. Stefan Koenigstein, investigates how marine living resources are shaped by environmental and ecosystem conditions, as well as by fisheries and other anthropogenic pressures.
The group develops and applies a range of quantitative ecological models, including age-structured population models, multispecies models of intermediate complexity (MICE), and food-web models. The models integrate ocean and Earth system model outputs, ecological data and eco-physiological processes, and stakeholder participation. Our goals are to better understand the dynamics of marine ecosystems and the resilience of marine living resources to exploitation, to anticipate future trends and to co-develop sustainable, ecosystem-based adaptation strategies together with coastal communities.
Integrative models, based on ecological mechanisms
A core focus are process-based ecological models, which explicitly represent the biological and environmental processes that govern marine population and ecosystem dynamics. By incorporating knowledge and data on life histories, physiological tolerances, and ecosystem interactions, process-based models allow for a more robust assessment of global change and fisheries impacts. These models can make use of diverse empirical data sources, can be coupled to outputs from high-resolution ocean-biogeochemical and climate models, and enable a transfer of understanding from data-rich systems to data-poor regions such as the tropics.
A process-based, full life-cycle model for small pelagic fish populations and their environmental interactions and fisheries in the California Current (Koenigstein et al. 2020, ICES JMS)
Ecosystem-based governance and adaptation, and coupling to ocean-biogeochemical and climate models
To balance ecological realism with transparency, robustness and applicability, the group employs multi-species ‘Models of Intermediate Complexity for Ecosystem assessment’ (MICE), food-web models and system dynamics models. These models represent the main environmental, ecological, and human components to advance understanding of ocean resource systems, and support ecosystem-based governance and adaptation strategies. Model hindcasts and future projections, ensemble simulations and sensitivity analyses are used to calibrate and assess models, quantify uncertainty, and create future projections of ecosystems and resources under global change, providing relevant information for ocean users, management, and policy.
A spatial food-web model for the Peruvian upwelling system is driven by ocean-biogeochemical model output, to project the future distribution, biomass and fisheries of key species (e.g. anchoveta, Humboldt squid and mahi-mahi), and co-assessed together with stakeholders (Koenigstein et al. in prep.)
Participatory modeling and sustainability science
Model development is often participatory, involving stakeholders from early project stages through co-design of model structures, scenarios, and research questions. This supports the co-production of knowledge, the evaluation of adaptation strategies, and mutual learning between scientists and local actors.
Beyond quantitative modeling, the group engages in inter- and transdisciplinary sustainability science, e.g. co-developing regionalized global change scenarios. The educational class-room game Ocean Limited was developed to support dialogue, negotiation and collaborative learning about sustainable ocean resource use strategies.
Ocean Limited, a game-based approach to marine sustainability for school classes and environmental education groups (Koenigstein et al. 2020 ICES JMS; www.ocean-limited.com).
WG Members